Setting the Lines

                                                                 Projections for Key Skill Players

Chiefs Focus                               @ChiefsFocus

Derek Dietz                                 @OriginalMrDietz

 


With all the turnover this past year, today we will take a look at stat projections for the key players on offense.

As you know it begins and ends with Patrick Mahomes. In four years as a starter, he averages a whopping 4,677 yards and 37.75 touchdowns. With the loss of Tyreek Hill, it is conceivable there is a slight drop off, but I do not see it.  Official Prediction for Mahomes: 4500 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 9 INT.  

Travis Kelce. To put it bluntly, he is the most underrated Receiver in the NFL. In the past 6 seasons, he has tallied 7269 yards and 47 touchdowns, for a mere 1210 yardage average and paltry 7.8 TDs per year.  He is WR1/TE1 for this franchise, no doubt about it. Barring injury he will produce. Official Projection for Kelce: 1050 yards, 10 TD. 

Mecole Hardman. The forgotten man in the re-vamped WR room. There may not be a more polarizing player than this for Chiefs fans to debate. The numbers are what they are, after 3 full seasons he has 1790 yards, 12 TD, and 186 targets with 126 catches. The numbers say Mecole will deliver 600 yards and 4 TD.  I tend to think he will go well above this. He is the most “Tyreek-esque” player on the roster, and any time he touches the ball he can take it to the house. Official Projection for Hardman: 820 yards, 7 TD.  100 yards rushing and another TD. 

Marquez Valdez-Scantling. The big money free agent arrives with the pressure to produce immediately. If he can keep his routes crisp, and not have drops he should see an uptick in production. In a #2 or #3 role in Green Bay, he averaged around 540 yards a season and 3 TD’s. Hopefully, these numbers can be improved upon given that he will be on the field a lot in Andy Reid’s scheme.  Official Prediction for Scantling: 750 yards, 6 TD. 

Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith Schuster, and Josh Gordon. Here are three guys that should probably be put in the blender together and look at the aggregate.   Moore is a rookie. Gordon will have to make huge strides to make the roster, and JuJu has the highest ceiling. I hope I am wrong with my prediction, but Mahomes has a lot of mouths to feed, and unless one of these guys really separate from the pack, my prediction is as follows:   Official Prediction for Skyy/JuJu/Josh:  combined 1300 yards, 10 TD

Chiefs Running Backs include Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, Jerrick McKinnon, and unknown rookies to be named later.  If you cannot tell by my past writings, I am generally down on Andy Reid’s use of running backs over the course of the last 20 years.  Coach Andy always seems to have a stable of young, adequate runners to rush and catch the ball. Again, we must look at the aggregate. Derrick Henry or Jonathon Taylor they are not, but they are adequate to good. CEH is not an every down back. McKinnon is good in small bursts. With that, I truly feel the best of the bunch will be Ronald Jones (if he stays on the field and has no fumbles) or an unknown rookie. Official Prediction for the RB’s:  combined 1800 yards rushing, combined 14 TD, combined 500 yards receiving and another 2 receiving TDs.  

 

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