Chiefs vs Titans – Odds, Props & More
By: Justin Miles (justm1les)
This Sunday night, the 5-2 Tennessee Titans head to Kansas City to face the 5-2 Chiefs. This is a highly anticipated matchup that will involve the clash of opposite schemes. The Chiefs and their high paced team will face a physical, slower paced Titans. This will likely lead to a challenging matchup for both coaches and will be an interesting one throughout. Let’s take a look at the betting props for this one.
Despite both teams being 5-2, Kansas City is currently the 12.5 point favorite. This is an interesting prop for bettors. Even the biggest Chief fans might have to take a look at Tennessee to cover the spread in this one. Betting the Titans to cover doesn’t mean the Chiefs can’t win, just that they cannot win by 13 or more points.
The Titans are a team that will slow down the pace of the game and will drain some clock, likely keeping the score respectable. However, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the league. This is definitely a tough betting line no matter which way you look at it.
The over/under prop for total points scored in this one is 46.5. This is one that could also very well go either way.
The Chiefs are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging 31.9 points per game. On the flip side, the Titans have a physical defense that only allows on average 19.7 points per game. This means the game will likely be decided by how well the Chiefs defense plays against the Titans offense.
Offensively, the Titans are one of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL, averaging just 18.9 points per game. Contrarily, the Chiefs defense allows 24.6 points per game. This side of things will be a slow paced, low scoring offense going against a somewhat inconsistent defense.
The use of inconsistent when describing Kansas City’s defense is used very loosely. The Chiefs run defense will be the primary focus against an extremely run-heavy Titan’s offense. Tennessee has mostly only seen their success come on the ground. Heading into this one, the Derrick Henry led attack averages the 9th most rushing yards per game with 138. On the bright side for the Chiefs, Nick Bolton has led Kansas City to become one of the best rushing defenses in the league, allowing just 92 yards on the ground per game. This will lead to quite an interesting and physical matchup all game long.
If Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill remains sidelined with an ankle injury, rookie Malik Willis will get the start. The difference between the two? If Willis is in the game, Steve Spagnuolo and his crew will likely see a heavy option offense. Not to mention, Willis will likely scramble throughout the game. The solution? Willie Gay will make a phenomenal quarterback spy. This essentially means his job for the night will be to shadow Willis wherever he goes. This likely shuts down any rushing attack from Willis, forcing the ball elsewhere.
The “inconsistency” of the Chiefs defense mostly is due to their young defensive back core. This defense has allowed an average of 277 passing yards per game, ranking 3rd worst in the league. However, the young guys are molding quickly and only improving as the season progresses. Not to mention, rookie Trent McDuffie will be back in action this week. Fortunately for Kansas City, Tennessee has one of the worst passing offenses this season, averaging just 147.6 yards per game. This will likely lead to a poor passing performance, no matter who gets the start for the Titans.
Overall, it will likely come down to how well each team plays in the trenches.. The Chiefs and Titans offensive lines have both given up the same amount of sacks thus far this season. This turns everything to the defensive lines of both teams. The Titans defense has 5 more sacks than Kansas City on the season. However, as well all know by now, a Chris Jones led defensive line brings a certain level of dominance, that is almost impossible to stop. Especially if a rookie quarterback makes the start, pressure will be crucial.
On the flip side, if Kansas City’s offense can give Mahomes time, the statistically 2nd best passing offense is going up against the 2nd worst pass defense in the league. Giving Mahomes the slightest bit of time, this offense should light the field up. Tennessee has a decent run defense and will likely slow down a majority of Kansas City’s effort on the ground. Giving Andy Reid even another reason to let Mahomes go to work through the air.
I like the over on the point total. Everyone knows what Mahomes and the offense is capable of and a 30 point game now seems casual. While I do think the Chiefs defense will slow down the Titans, in today’s NFL, scoring is inevitable. Despite recent success, with a young defensive core, it is likely the Chiefs will give a couple cheap ones up to this tough run attack.
While the 12.5 point spread is a tough one, I think the Titans cover, despite losing this matchup. I predict the Titans will slow the pace of the game down and drain the game clock. In doing so, I think the Titans will keep it respectable and keep the Chiefs modest throughout.
I have the Chiefs winning this one by 10, leading to Tennessee covering the spread. Despite this, this is one that could very easily be a blowout. The Titans have a very poor defense and we all know how great Kansas City’s offense can be. However, Andy Reid is a football genius and typically plays more of a vanilla offense against poor defenses. Due to this, I think the Chiefs keep it close, but still walk away with the win.
What are your thoughts? Let us know what props the rest of Chiefs Kingdom is hammering this week!
Stats via: ESPN
Betting lines via: CBS Sports