Halloween forecast: rain and a heavy thunderstorm possible early, then cooling

Wow, Halloween is almost here already! And the most important things that everyone wants to know are whether it will be a “coats over costumes” night and whether an umbrella is needed.

West Michigan’s Halloween weather changes every year. The jet stream moves farther north and south in the fall and spring than it does in the summer and winter, so the weather is often this changeable. Halloween highs in West Michigan are usually in the mid-50s, and lows are usually in the mid-30s.

The good news is that it won’t be nearly as cold this Halloween as it was last year, when it snowed and was very cold. But because a cold front is moving through in the first half of the day, there could be spots of heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms.

West Michigan has a MARGINAL risk of bad weather on Halloween (Level 1 out of 5). This means that storms in the bright green shaded area could cause gusts of wind of 60 miles per hour or more. It’s unlikely that most storms will be this bad, but a few might be.

The clash of air masses can cause strong and dangerous storms. Since we are ahead of the cold front, it is warm and humid, which gives the air energy. The amount of energy in the air makes the cold front dive into the warm and humid air, which helps to start strong thunderstorms.

FORECAST TIMING

In the early hours of Thursday morning, showers will move inland from Lake Michigan. There could be spots of heavy rain and lightning.

By the middle of the morning, those showers and storms will get stronger as they move from the lakeshore to the 131 corridor. A stronger storm is more likely to hit counties in the south and east than in the north. For now, it will be in the low to mid-60s, and there will be a breeze from the southwest.

As the morning wears on and the temperature rises into the low 70s, so does the energy in the air.

If the front comes through at the right time, the best time for a strong or isolated severe storm is between 10 AM and 2 PM. Strong winds are the main threat from bad weather. Any storm, no matter how strong it is, is likely to have heavy rain and lightning.

The storm threat is over once the cold front moves on by. As the wind comes in from the northwest in the afternoon and early evening, there may be a few more isolated showers behind the front, but most of the ground will be dry. It will also begin to cool down at this point.

Most of them will be dry by the time trick-or-treating comes around, but it will still be cold! The low to mid-50s will be reached quickly by sunset, and there will be a breeze.

So you probably won’t need an umbrella to go trick-or-treating after 5 PM. But you might want a light jacket because it will be cold and windy.

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