Mortgage rates continue to rise despite the summer rate cut from the Federal Reserve. This has left experts surprised, as just the mere anticipation of the rate cut lowered interest rates. Regrettably, the two-year low of 6.08% in late September did not encourage aspiring homeowners to purchase their new home.
Last week, October 21 to October 24, the rates had already risen and the average rate on a standard, 30-year fixed mortgage was already back at 6.54%, higher than the September rate, but still nowhere near this year’s high of 7.22% in early May. The drop in purchases has been severe, according to the National Association of Realtors, the sale of previously owned homes fell 1% in September from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, which is the lowest it has been since October 2010.
And it is not just purchases that are down, mortgage applications are also declining according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association, lowest number since July, when the rates were still higher. Some of the contributing factors are environmental and expected every year, for example, families prefer to be settled for the school year and not risk uprooting the children with a change in school district in the middle of the year. Cold weather is also not good for house listings and viewings, especially if it rains, and since the Fed promised even lower interest rates, some may be waiting, hoping for a better deal.
This is important in times like this, when the economy seems volatile, as every percentage point on a mortgage rate can make a huge impact in monthly payments and family budgets. The lack of homes in the market is also a key factor, as many potential sellers are choosing to stay out rather than lose money on their home or have it sit on the market for months lowering its value.
The impact of high mortgage and interest rates on real life Americans
Kimberly, 22, a caseworker, and Zach, 23, US Postal Service worker, live in North Carolina with their two young children. They would like to purchase a home but have no down payment and live paycheck to paycheck. They are waiting for rates to come down and as Kimberly explains “I’ve been told by a lot of people to just go ahead and buy a house right now, but I don’t want to be stuck with a rate I don’t like for years only to have to refinance. I want to know that the rate I have at the moment is good and that I can have that for a while. That’s my biggest thing. I don’t want to refinance. I want to have a good rate from the start.”
She is not he only one with this mentality. Ken Lowrey, a 27-year-old renting in Charleston, South Carolina agrees that “homeownership is the absolute goalpost of security” but with rent increases and no savings due to medical debt, he has no chance of making it happen right now. In fact, he has put other life goals in the back burner like “having kids to saving for retirement to even fully committing to a career path.”
The economic data does not back the problems
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a release. “Over the last few years, there has been a tension between downbeat economic narrative and incoming economic data stronger than that narrative. This has led to higher-than-normal volatility in mortgage rates, despite a strengthening economy.”
The Fed’s interest rate cut was expected to cool down mortgage rates by also pushing down the 10-year Treasury yield, but stronger-than-expected economic data has driven yields up instead. In September, job growth numbers were positive, and retail spending data released last week showed that consumer demand, which drives the economy, is still strong. If data like this keeps coming, it could mean a slower pace for any additional rate cuts,
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which would hinder even more those looking to purchase a home
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