After a warmer-than-usual winter last year, New York City is getting ready for yet another change in the weather. Meteorologists and NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook say that a growing La Niña will likely have an effect on the next winter.

Nick Gregory of FOX 5 NY talked about his winter weather predictions for this year, including the chance of a nor’easter and how much snow he thinks will fall.

First day of winter 2024

Winter truly starts in the Northern Hemisphere on December 21 with the winter solstice. This is the day when there is the least amount of daylight and the longest night.

La Niña winter weather forecast

La Niña happens when the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperatures are cooler than usual and affect weather trends around the world. The southern U.S. usually gets drier and warmer weather because of this event, while the Great Lakes and some parts of the Northeast get cooler and wetter weather.

“A La Niña pattern can lead to above average temperatures for NYC and at or just above average snowfall,” said Gregory. “Some previous La Nina winters have produced strong nor’easters and blizzards.”

It’s not clear how this year’s La Niña will affect the Tri-State area because it is expected to be weak and may only last until early spring.

“The upcoming La Niña is forecasted to be a rather weak one, which means it may produce the characteristic effects of a more moderate La Nina,” said Gregory.

Will there be a nor’easter this winter?

The La Niña pattern points to a winter with normal to slightly below-average temperatures in New York City and the surrounding area.

Gregg said, “NYC will always have a nor’easter in the winter.” The question is going to be how cold it is when the storm hits. If La Niña is weak, it could set up a battle line between rain and snow across New York City and the close suburbs.

How much snow will fall in the NYC area?

Gregory thinks the city might get about 20 inches of snow this winter, which is less than the usual 28 inches that fall each winter.

“This winter is likely to be warmer than usual, and there will be more snow than last year—between 18 and 23 inches,” Gregory said. “However, that’s less snow than the city usually gets in a winter.”

The lower Hudson Valley, on the other hand, could get a little more snow, with accumulations of 20 to 25 inches. Further north, it would snow more. Along the coast, it may rain and snow for most of the winter. Further north, it will snow more.

From what we know, the first snow that can be measured (at least an inch) usually falls around December 13 in the NYC area. The earliest snow that could be measured came on October 29, 2011, just a few days before Halloween. It was 2.9 inches.

Historically, the first measurable snow (accumulation of one inch or more) tends to fall in the NYC area around Dec. 13. The earliest measurable snowfall was on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 inches fell days before Halloween.

Regional, national winter outlooks

NOAA

NOAA’s overall winter outlook shows that the northern U.S. will be wetter than usual, especially in the Great Lakes area, which will have colder temperatures and more rain than usual. The southern U.S., on the other hand, will probably have a warmer and dry winter.

For the three-state area, these trends are likely to be on the edges of the area. Storm systems often move farther north when La Niña is weak. This could mean that New York City is in a constant fight between rain and snow all season.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac

A “gentler-than-normal season” that’s “not so rough and tough” is what the Old Farmer’s Almanac says will happen in the central Northeast.

For the Interstate 95 corridor, which includes the Tri-State area, snowfall is predicted to be below average in the North but above average in the South, with the coldest temperatures in early and late January and late February.

Farmers’ Almanac winter 2024

“Get ready for a Wet Winter Whirlwind!” says the Farmers’ Almanac. Every year, they say that the long-term weather will be full of storms that come and go quickly, bringing both rain and snow.

The list shows a very busy storm track that will bring heavy rain and strong winds to most of the eastern half of the country on a regular basis.

Based on their predictions, the Northeast will have storms, more snow than usual, and temperatures close to or above average.

They also think that the mountains and the interior will get the most snow. On the other hand, the coast will get sleet and rain, especially near and along I-95.

There will be a lot of storms in the eastern half of the country during the last week of January, which is why the almanac is “red flagging” that week.

Source

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