In a Tuesday showcase clash, Nottingham Forest will try to surprise the Premier League community if their victory over Liverpool earlier this season went overlooked during the Reds’ title run.
With a game remaining, Arne Slot’s squad maintains a commanding lead in the Premier League standings with a six-point lead.
The lead, nevertheless, is not enough to provide them a comfortable break in the second part of the season. A victory here would reignite the title chase and improve Forest’s prospects of making it to the UEFA Champions League.
After losing to Tottenham in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semifinal on Wednesday and drawing with Manchester United in league play a week ago, the Reds have appeared manageable lately.
If the leaders here make a mistake, Forest will have even more cause to think they can strive for a record-breaking amount of trophies in addition to competing for the top four.
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prediction, odds
Anyone who doesn’t think Forest can compete in the top four is most likely in the minority. While the forwards perform a lot with little volume, Nuno Espirito Santo has set up this team for success, and they are following his defensive philosophy.
They have yet to regularly take points away from top teams, even if they have produced clockwork-like outcomes against opponents in the lower half. They defeated Liverpool early in the season but have since lost to Newcastle United, Arsenal, and Manchester City (plus chaos-mongers Fulham).
Meanwhile, there are some indications that Liverpool is losing steam. The Reds need their supporting players to step up more regularly because Mohamed Salah can only lead the squad so far.
Whether it is 0-0 or 1-1, a low-scoring draw is a highly likely outcome that would please everyone. Liverpool keeps a club close to the top at bay, knowing they still have a sizable advantage and a game in hand on the rest of the field, while Forest earns a point against a top opponent, keeping them in the running for the top four.
|
BetMGM (USA) |
|
|
Nott. Forest win |
+400 |
|
Draw |
+300 |
|
Liverpool win |
-160 |
|
Both teams to score |
Y: -150 N: +105 |
|
Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -160 U: +115 |
|
Nottingham Forest -0.5 goals |
+120 |
|
Liverpool +0.5 goals |
-175 |
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool match facts
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Date:
Tuesday, January 14, 2025 -
Kickoff Time:
8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT) -
Location:
City Ground (Nottinghamshire, England) -
Referee:
Chris Kavanaugh,
VAR:
John Brooks. -
Last meeting:
Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Sep. 14, 2024 | Premier League)
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool best bet
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Pick:
Under 2.5 total goals -
Odds:
+115 (BetMGM)
There are a number of circumstances that could result in a draw on Tuesday at the City Ground.
First off, this season, Nottingham Forest’s defense has been outstanding. Forest stays solid at the back, but Arsenal’s statistically superior defense keeps slipping at the worst conceivable circumstances.
They have been both competent and fortunate to win, as evidenced by their third-best predicted goals allowed in the Premier League (after Liverpool and Arsenal) and their third-best difference in the top half.
Lately, Liverpool’s finishing has been especially subpar. These factors often lead to short-term trends, so even while a future course correction is likely, it might take some time.
Liverpool had a dismal total both times, scoring two goals on 2.86 xG against Manchester United but failing to score on 1.13 xG against Tottenham.
Although all of Forest’s top goal scorers are excellent finishers, they are unlikely to have many opportunities against the Premier League’s top defense, and Liverpool would likely be happy to control this away game even if they only split the points.
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prop bet
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Pick:
Liverpool 17+ total shots -
Odds:
-120 on FanDuel
For a game that we anticipate to be highly defensive, this is a high bar to meet, but just because Liverpool plans to take some chances up front to force their will on the championship battle does not imply they will make money doing so.
Nuno actually enjoys it when Forest allows their opponents to take a lot of shots. This is due to the fact that, provided the effort is not extremely risky, a shot usually ends an attacking possession.
Forest has given up 259 shots overall this season, which puts them seventh in the Premier League—not exactly what you would expect from a side that has given up the second-fewest goals overall.
This is because they have the second-lowest opponent on target percentage (32%), only surpassed by Arsenal’s 31%, and they give up the fewest xG/shot of any side (0.08).
It could work in Forest’s favor if they can convince Liverpool to take several low-value chances, as it did at Anfield earlier this season when the Reds took 14 shots totaling just 0.91 xG, or a pitiful 0.065 xG per attempt.
RESOURCE
Eliot Pierce is a dedicated writer for ChiefsFocus.com, covering local crime and finance news. With a keen eye for detail and a passion for storytelling, Eliot aims to provide his readers with clear and insightful analysis, helping them navigate the complexities of their financial lives while staying informed about important local events. His commitment to delivering accurate and engaging content makes him a valuable resource for the community.