Seven Hints That Kamala Harris Will Beat Trump

From the start, Kamala Harris has said that she is the underdog in her run against Trump. Democrats’ feelings have been all over the place. Their fear of losing helped push Joe Biden out of the race, then they had a great time with Harris, and now they’re back to feeling nervous before the election because Trump has gained ground. Democrats still think Harris has a good chance of winning. These are seven.

Skewed Polling

In almost every key state, the race between Harris and Trump is very close. But that outcome might be changed by polling companies with a political bias, mostly on the Republican side. Some of the most important opinion averages include results from right-leaning pollsters like Trafalgar Group, which wrongly called the 2022 midterm elections a “red wave,” and even Trump-sponsored polls. And some Democratic leaders have noticed.

Money Talks

More than $1 billion was raised in just one quarter by the Harris campaign, which broke all previous records for fundraising. While money can’t always buy votes, it can buy ads that put the Harris right in front of voters on their TVs, computers, and phones.

A lot of regular Americans, like nurses and school teachers, have given small amounts to super PACs in addition to the large amounts of money that big donors have given. The campaign said that 95% of the donations it got in August were for less than $200.

Expert on Democratic campaigns for decades, James Carville, wrote in an opinion piece for The New York Times on Wednesday that Harris would win: “She is strapped with the necessary cash to forcefully remind suburban women and voters in the middle that Mr. Trump is, in fact, the extremist candidate.”

Gains on the Economy

To use a quote from Carville: “It’s still the economy, stupid.” Before this fall, most Americans trusted Trump more than Democrats to handle the situation. A number of polls now show that Harris has won back voters’ trust on their top problem, as she has pushed policies that will lower the costs of home buying, grocery shopping, and starting a business.

Abortion Rights

In general, voters care a lot about the economy and immigration. But among women under 30, 40% say abortion is their most important problem. Since Biden stopped running for president, that number has gone through the roof. In August, a different poll of key voters, mostly women, found the same thing.

After Trump chose three Supreme Court Justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade, polls show that voters trust Harris much more than they trust Trump on this topic. Harris also has the money to make strong ads against “Trump abortion bans,” like the moving one that came out on Wednesday.

Trump’s Weakening Base

Republicans have said that they have been able to cut into Harris’s support among groups that usually vote Democratic, like Black and Latino men. But Trump might be losing support among his own people.

Monday, CNN election expert Harry Enten said that Trump’s support among white voters who didn’t go to college has dropped. That could be especially important in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are known as the “blue wall” states because most of the people there are like that.

Early Voting in Michigan

Democrats do vote early more often than Republicans, but on November 5, a high number of Republicans could show up. Still, Harris is seeing some good signs, especially in Michigan. About 700,000 voters in Wayne and Oakland counties, which are Democratic strongholds in the Detroit area, have asked for absentee votes.

That’s about half of all the people who voted in those counties in 2020. The state’s voting dashboard shows that more than half of those voters have already turned in their votes. Also, TargetSmart data shows that the number of Black early voters has grown since 2020, according to Forbes. Among Black voters, Harris’ support is much higher than Trump’s.

Likability

The last two elections show that many people will vote for Trump even though they don’t like him as a person. But vote share can make a difference in a close race, and Trump has a much lower rating than Harris.

Polls analyzed by FiveThirtyEight show that Trump has a -8.8 percent net favorability rating, while Harris has a -0.6 percent rating. And Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, is the only one on either ticket who has a positive favorability rate.

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