U.S. Financial Conditions Deteriorate in October – Worrying Unemployment and Inflation Data Already Confirmed

The total price level saw a modest uptick in September, so the Thursday inflation report did not provide Vice President Kamala Harris with the kind of encouraging news he might have hoped. A 14-month high of 258,000 jobless claims were filed in the most recent week, coinciding with this increase in inflation. In spite of this, the labor market continued to show resilience, adding 254,000 jobs in the past month, which was more than anticipated.

The long awaited September inflation data

According to the U.S. Labor Department, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in September, which translates to a 2.4% annual inflation rate. According to Fox Business, this was somewhat higher than the forecasts made by analysts, who predicted a 0.1% monthly growth and an annual rate of 2.3%.Additionally, core inflation—which does not include the volatile prices of food and energy—rose by 0.3% for a 3.3% annual rate, which was higher than the 0.2% economists had predicted.Core inflation reflects shifts in necessities that impact household budgets by accounting for things like housing, auto insurance, healthcare, apparel, and airfare.

Prices are still higher than they were when President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris first took office, even if inflation has dramatically dropped from the four-decade highs reached in 2022, when it reached over 9%. Voters continue to be concerned about the economy, according to recent polls, as a result of the prices’ continued highness.

According to a Gallup poll issued earlier this week, voters are primarily influenced by the economy in the run-up to the election. With 52% of respondents saying that a candidate’s economic stance would be crucial in deciding their vote, this is the highest percentage since the 2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, 38% of voters stated that the economy played a significant role in their choice. From September 16–28, 1,023 registered voters participated in the survey, which had a +/- 4 percentage point margin of error. Additionally, it showed that most people believe former President Donald Trump can better manage the economy than Harris, with 54% of voters supporting Trump and 45% supporting Harris.

Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman, who is the CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research, recognized that Harris has outperformed Biden in terms of economic assessments, but she also pointed out that Americans are still having difficulty keeping up with rising daily expenses. Voters still believe that daily expenses are high, so there is a limit to how much improvement this news [of a lower annual inflation rate] will bring for Harris, even though she is outperforming Biden in handling the economy and is being given some leeway as a newer candidate.

In a speech to the Detroit Economic Club on Thursday, Trump discussed inflation and criticized the Biden-Harris administration’s economic management. When I left office four years ago, there was no inflation, and for the four years I was in office, there was essentially no inflation. The economy has been a complete mess under Biden and Harris due to inflation, but Kamala claims she cannot think of a single thing she would do differently, Trump said. Additionally, citing Wall Street expert Scott Bessent’s praise, he credited his increased polling numbers for the recent rise of the stock market.

The inflation rate was 1.4% in January 2021, the month Trump left office. It increased to 4.2% by April of that year, and inflation kept rising the following year. The increase happened when Democrats enacted the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in March 2021. Given that the economy was already in a recovery phase, many economists from all political parties had projected that this measure would lead to inflation. With no Republican support for the bill, Vice President Harris cast the decisive vote in the Senate, which was crucial in the legislation’s passage.