US Election Prediction 2024 : National Polls Leader

• Her polling ratings improved throughout the course of the first few weeks of Harris’ campaign, and by the time August came to a close, she had a lead of almost four percentage points over her predecessor.
• The figures have stayed relatively stable since the beginning of September, despite the fact that about 70 million people watched the solitary conversation between the two candidates that took place on September 10th.
• Although the results of these national polls can be a useful measure of the level of support that a candidate has across the country, it is important to note that they are not necessarily an accurate indicator of the outcome of the election.
• The electoral college system, which is utilized in the United States, is responsible for this phenomenon. This system grants votes to states based on the population size of those states.
• The United States of America contains only a handful of states in which both candidates have a possibility of winning, despite the fact that the majority of these states nearly always vote for the same party.

Who Will Win US President Elections 2024

• Neither candidate has a large lead in any of the seven states that are expected to be battlegrounds in this election, according to the averages of the polls that have been conducted.
• There have been a few instances in which the lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina has been passed back and forth since the beginning of August; nevertheless, Trump has managed to keep a slight lead for a few weeks. There are situations that are comparable in
• Nevada, where Harris has been holding a slight advantage over the competition.
  From the beginning of August, Harris has been in the lead in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, often by a margin of two or three points. In spite of this, the
• polls have been growing closer over the past few days, and Trump is presently leading Pennsylvania by a very slim margin.
• Up until the time that Trump turned all three of those states red during his campaign for the presidency in 2016, they had all been strongholds for the Democratic Party.

Who Will Win the US President Elections 2024?

• The most recent polls indicate that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are currently tied for first place in each of the swing states, with only a few percentage points separating them.
• When polls were conducted in 2016 and 2020, the popularity of Donald Trump was underestimated.
• These polling companies will be looking for ways to ensure that their findings accurately represent the demographics of the electorate in order to find a solution to this problem.
• Despite this, analysts are still need to make educated guesses about other aspects, such as the number of people who will turn out to vote on November 5th, and it is difficult to get these predictions correct.

Outcome Of US Presidential Election Prediction 2024

• Trump has a 57% chance of winning the election, according to Election Betting Odds, which combines information from the major markets. This represents a significant increase from the
• approximately 48% chance he had at the end of September and the largest margin in his favor since July 29.
• The same pattern can also be observed at other betting websites, such as Smarkets, Kalshi, and Betfair, which all provide Trump with odds of victory that are approximately 58%, 57%, and 58%, respectively.
• There has been a significant shift in the odds on Polymarket, where Trump now has a sixty percent probability of winning, whereas Harris just has forty percent.
• There have been four accounts that have contributed to this move by placing wagers that amount more than thirty million dollars, as stated by a source that was cited by Reuters.
• Because of this, many who utilize social media and political experts have begun to speculate about whether or not some well-known Americans could have an effect on the patterns of wagering that have been observed.

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