President-elect Donald Trump, set to take office again in January, faces a crucial period when it comes to Social Security retirement benefits. The program is grappling with a funding shortfall that has been decades in the making, putting the spotlight on Trump’s role in shaping its future — whether the public likes it or not.
He Has Vowed To Leave the Program Unchanged
During his campaign, Trump promised to “protect” Social Security and not cut benefits. This stance marked a shift from his previous rhetoric, where he suggested the program needed an overhaul. Trump criticized his primary rival, Nikki Haley, for her willingness to raise the retirement age for younger workers. On his campaign website, he insists that he will leave Social Security untouched if re-elected.
“While Trump’s past statements called for significant changes to Social Security, his recent focus has been on maintaining the status quo,” said Colin Ruggiero, co-founder of DisabilityGuidance.org. “He has vowed not to make any changes to the system, which may come as a relief to many who rely on these benefits.”
In a Decade, the Consequences of Doing Nothing Will Lead to Something
The Social Security Administration (SSA) estimates that the trust funds that support the program could be depleted by 2034. At that point, payroll taxes alone will only be enough to fund about 80% of promised benefits.
“Short-term solutions might include raising the retirement age, increasing payroll taxes, or both,” Ruggiero noted. “But Trump’s plan focuses on an alternative solution — boosting oil production as a way to secure funding for Social Security.”
Payroll Taxes: Will They Stay or Go?
One of the most contentious areas for Social Security funding is payroll taxes, which are set at 6.2% each for employers and employees, with the self-employed paying the full 12.4%. Trump has made it clear he doesn’t want to raise these taxes. However, his past actions hint at a potential for permanent cuts in payroll taxes despite the risks they pose to the program’s long-term sustainability.
“During his first term, Trump deferred payroll taxes to stimulate economic growth, although it had little to no real impact,” said Dennis Shirshikov, head of growth at Awning. “Permanent payroll tax cuts could deplete Social Security funding by mid-2023, according to Social Security Chief Actuary Stephen Goss. Yet, Trump’s approach seems to favor short-term economic stimulation over long-term security.”
Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Pain
Trump’s 2020 executive order to defer payroll taxes was a short-term fix that would only come into effect after his second term began. If re-elected, Trump could push for more permanent changes to the program, but any major changes wouldn’t impact Social Security until at least 2026.
The COLA (Cost-of-Living Adjustment) for 2025 is already determined based on data from the third quarter of this year, meaning any significant changes would not be immediately reflected.
“Raising the retirement age would be a slower adjustment, phased in over time, starting with today’s younger workers,” Shirshikov explained. “The last major increase came from a 1983 reform, which didn’t affect those born in 1960 or later until 2022. Any changes proposed by Trump would likely follow a similar timeline.”
Conclusion
While a Trump presidency won’t see immediate changes to Social Security in 2025, his policies could determine the program’s future in the years that follow. His administration’s stance on Social Security will be crucial, particularly regarding payroll taxes and the program’s long-term financial health. The public and lawmakers alike will be watching closely to see whether Trump’s promises to protect Social Security hold true or whether his fiscal policies will lead to its restructuring.
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Eliot Pierce is a dedicated writer for ChiefsFocus.com, covering local crime and finance news. With a keen eye for detail and a passion for storytelling, Eliot aims to provide his readers with clear and insightful analysis, helping them navigate the complexities of their financial lives while staying informed about important local events. His commitment to delivering accurate and engaging content makes him a valuable resource for the community.